“When you have robbed a man of everything, he’s no longer in your power. He is free again.”

Alexander Solzhenitsyn

Bless what you call your misfortune. It created the strength of your
beautiful soul.

— Socrates

"Nowhere am I so desperately needed as among a shipload of illogical humans."

-Spock

Democratic Party talking heads are already out there talking about how the election results are not only the best thing since sliced bread, not only the biggest political event of the last 200 years, but also an abrupt end to everything that the neo-cons stand for.

According to these characters Bush and the neocons were uniquely responsible for the wars against Afghanistan and Iraq, the erosion of civil liberties, the legal threats that they claim point in the direction of martial law or fascism, the economic changes that have resulted in the rich getting richer, and all else that's not right with the world.

Okay...then it's put up or shut up time!

Let's see the Democrats rescind the complete Patriot Act. No tinkering around the edges - the whole thing has got to go.

And while they're at it, let's see them dismantle the 1996 Anti-terrorism and pro Death Penalty Act that Clinton signed.

Let's see them restore the right to habeas corpus.

Let's see them end the use of torture by the US military, CIA, private armies paid for with tax dollars, and countries whose governments are under US control.

Let's see them declare to the world that the US will no longer try to overthrow Castro, Chavez, Ortega or any other progressive leader who stands up to the US government and tries to bring about better conditions for their people.

Let's see them reject every appointment of another war-mongerer that Bush tries to make. Let's see them start with Bush's new Defense Secretary. Filibuster until January and then vote it down.

Let's see them put a litmus test on ALL nominations to the federal courts: either you're going to strike down anti-civil liberties laws or you don't get appointed.

Let's see them immediately withdraw (not redeploy) all US troops from the mideast. Moving them from Iraq to Saudi Arabia or Jordan is simply not enough. Get them out of there.

Let's see them end the blatant imperialism of the last 2 decades. No more US soldiers stationed anywhere outside the US. They should be a defense force. Defense of the people of the US NOT the defense (or offense) for every corporate executive that decides to wave a flag while he steals and exploits from the people in other lands.

Let's see them tie Bush's hands with a law that says the US will never again attack another country in a so-called "preventive" or "pre-emptive" war.

Let's see them cut the US military down to a size that could only be used for defensive purposes - say a 90% cut in the military budget to begin with.

Let's see them end the use of eminent domain. People should feel secure in their homes and that they won't be destroyed by the government for private profit.

Let's see them end the whole regimen of high stakes testing in schools that subjects our young people to a regular racist assault on their futures.

Let's see them end the current abuse of the legal system that results in the arrests of about 900,000 people a year for marijuana with the result that the rich get their records expunged while the poor are faced with reduced economic opportunities due to their police records in addition to jail time.

Let's see them end the stealing under the name of privatization that has been accomplished by Halliburton and their allies. But let's see them also end the stealing by the Democratic allied corporations like the ones building the useless arena in Newark or the shopping center next to Giants Stadium (soon to be renamed with some corporate logo.)

We have a chance to see if there really is a difference between Democrats and Republicans.

But the signs are already out there. Conyers has been told to shut up. And he's obeyed. No more talk of impeachment said Pelosi and she's going to be the new Speaker of the House. (Talk of impeachment benefited the Democrats during the election campaign by making them appear to be anti-Bush, but now reality sets in.)

Somehow, I foresee that rather than any real pro-people changes, we're instead going to see a lot of posturing, spin control, excuse making and blatant lying about why they can't do any of these things...and then they'll ask us to vote for more Democrats in 2008 to "solve" the problem.

Bob

“I made my money by selling too soon.”
– Bernard Baruch

"I'd much rather have a soccer player beside me in a fight than a black belt in Tae Kwon Do. The soccer player can dodge and dive."

- Bert Rodriguez

The Ultimate Ensemble is a speculative possible feature of theories of everything (TOEs), suggested by Max Tegmark. Related to the Anthropic principle and Multiverse theories, the Ultimate Ensemble suggests that not only should worlds corresponding to different sets of initial conditions or different physical constants be considered real, but also worlds ruled by altogether different equations. The only postulate in this theory is that all structures that exist mathematically exist also physically. In those mathematical structures complex enough to contain self-aware substructures (SASs), these SASs will subjectively perceive themselves as existing in a physically "real" world. Tegmark observes that this simple theory, which has no free parameters at all and may thus be preferred over all other TOE's by Occam's Razor, is not observationally ruled out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultimate_ensemble

November 02, 2006

******************
INVESTMENT DETAILS
******************
Peak Oil: A Pass/Fail Intelligence Test
by Dan Ferris

You know about peak oil.

That’s the idea that the world is running out of oil, that the price is going sky high as the global supply of oil shrinks to nothing.

It’s going to happen so fast, say true believers, that we won’t have time to develop new alternatives. We’ll be caught with our pants down, and the world will plunge into chaos.

C. J. Campbell, geologist and author of The Coming Oil Crisis, says, “We have come to the end of the first half of the Oil Age.”

As if the Stone Age ended because we ran out of stones.

Peak oil theory is wrong because it demands a repeal of the laws of economics, the simple dynamics of supply and demand. It also endows prognosticators with the ability to see the future, an ability, unfortunately, which no one actually possesses. Finally, like all Malthusian theories, it ignores the fact that every human mouth comes with one human brain attached (and at no extra charge, I might add).

I recently gained a new respect for the folks at Morningstar, who wrote recently (and correctly), “The laws of economics have not been repealed… Canada alone has almost 300 billion barrels in its tar sands, economical to process at prices above $30 per barrel and astonishingly profitable at $70. Ratchet prices up to $40 per barrel and coal-to-liquids (gasoline, diesel, etc.) becomes realistic, providing more than 50 years supply alone. At $70, oil shale – which could supply the world at current consumption levels for 100 years – becomes realistic. Finally, above $80, biomass-to-liquids, an essentially limitless source, becomes economical.”

Peak oil, like every apocalyptic depletion argument, is one of life’s little intelligence tests. If you believe it, you’re stupid and you fail. If you know it’s crap, you’re smart enough to pass. It’s like Y2K. If you moved your family to the hinterlands of Arkansas and predicted violence in the streets, you failed that little test. If you ignored it, you passed.

As for your money, you can take the peak-oil test with your portfolio on the line. Accepting peak-oil nonsense requires ignoring the highly cyclical nature of oil (it was near $80 a couple months ago; now it’s under $60). That, in turn, could lead you to downplay the role of savvy management, like that of, oh… say… ExxonMobil (XOM).

ExxonMobil’s management knows that the company has to make investments work across cycles and in many different pricing environments. That’s why its deepwater Gulf leases only go out to 2008. Management knows the company will get a chance to buy in cheaper at some point. Charley Maxwell’s recent piece in Barron’s is wrong about this. He says they’ll miss out… but Maxwell believes in peak oil, so he fails the test.

ExxonMobil’s management buys to make money, to earn a return on investment, not to indulge fears about paranoid theories. And ExxonMobil has done a better job of earning shareholder returns than most of the companies that now exist or have ever existed.

Since 1950, when it was known as Standard Oil of New Jersey, ExxonMobil has generated average annual shareholder returns of more than 14% a year. More than 5% of that was from dividends. ExxonMobil has raised its dividend every year since 1983. Think about how oil prices hovered in the teens from 1983 to 1998, and you’ll appreciate that dividend record even more. In 1999, when hardly anyone made money in the oil business and a barrel cost about $10, ExxonMobil earned 12.1% on capital. That’s its worst performance: 12.1%. These days, it exceeds 30%. If ExxonMobil can make money at $10 oil, it’s going to be raising its dividend forever.

ExxonMobil’s managers have made it clear that the company doesn’t buy into the peak-oil nonsense. They pass the test.

Good investing,

Dan Ferris

*******************
A LITTLE EXTRA VALUE
*******************

Peak oil isn’t the only fearmongering the financial and political mouthpieces try to ram down your throat. Here’s a smattering of other issues you’re admonished to become paranoid about:

Market crashes
Trade deficits
Foreigners owning “too many” treasury securities
The tapped-out American consumer
Interest-rate hikes (that will kill stocks)
A falling dollar (that will take stocks down with it)
Recession/depression
Hyperinflation
War

All these fears are part of the pervasive idea of the decline of Western civilization, popularized by Nietzsche and others in the 19th century. Ever since then, modern man has always been seen as materialistic and morally bankrupt. Modern people are always displaced, alienated, and isolated.

Arthur Herman wrote a book about all this called The Idea of Decline in Western History. It’s worth a read, and the basic idea is right. Western civilization isn’t in decline. That’s just something people say to sound cool, or to get in with a certain crowd, or succeed in politics, or what have you.

At Extreme Value, we’re finding one bargain after another among large, well-known, extremely well-capitalized companies. It makes no sense to avoid buying great businesses at once-a-decade prices because you think a twice-a-century event might happen.

The only thing you have to fear in the market is fear itself. Get control of your reason, and start making some money.




---------------------------------
Visit www.stansberryresearch.com
---------------------------------

The proof is simplicity itself; if something COULD be done, someone in all of history would have thought of it by now, as they have all, at one time or another, been in the throes of this exact same, sorry economic situation of a huge government needing hugely more money. And although everyone furiously tried everything they could think of, including ruinous taxation, robbing the Jews, the churches or the nobility, and even declaring war on another country to confiscate their wealth so that they could pay some bills, nothing worked. Nothing. Nothing has ever worked. And it won't this time, either.

-MG